Sean T at RCP Verified account @SeanTrende. Sr. Elections Analyst, RCP. @osupolisci. @aei. Recovering Att'y. Married to @emytrende, dad to 3. You shall love your crooked neighbor, with your crooked heart.Recovering Att'y. Married to. @emytrende. , dad to 3. You shall love your crooked neighbor, with your crooked heart. Sean T at RCP is a free elf. 2020/03/19/coronavirus-effect-economy-life-society-analysis-covid-135579.“I think these analyses provide useful context on where this election stands. The biggest limitation on these analyses isn't that the GOP holds a large number of seats to begin. It is that they describe linear relationships between seat gain which probably don't hold this cycle.”Jun 4, 2022 · “This happened in all the Senate races. Pryor was in the game against Cotton through much of the summer, but basically got the same vote share he'd been polling at from May onward; Cotton got all the undecideds, almost all of whom disapproved of the president.” In this conversation. Verified account“@jbview @yeselson I guess I feel like a representative doesn't lose by 35 points without seriously deviating from constituents' impressions of what they're about. But I think it's an interesting way of looking at it, and maybe her earlier campaigns don't conform to my expectations.”In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersSean T at RCP Verified account @SeanTrende. Sr. Elections Analyst, RCP. @osupolisci. @aei. Recovering Att'y. Married to @emytrende, dad to 3. You shall love your crooked neighbor, with your crooked heart.@SeanTrende: My basic view of this election hasn’t changed over the cycle; it’s the same frame I carry into every election: they are referenda on the party in power, …“I've gotten a few questions about the "split decision" narrative, and whether it should change if Ds pull out wins in FL-Sen and AZ-Sen (good chance in both!). This gets to one of my biggest pet peeves about elections analysis and sports analysis. 1/”“Put differently, if you had placed Kennedy on the 1968 Warren Court, he would have appeared to be a freakishly right-of-center justice. For that matter, Souter probably would have voted with Harlan, who held down the right flank of that Court. 6/”“One of the quiet stories under the hood is that Republicans are looking like they'll win the popular vote. Probably a popular vote swing of 5% (depending on how CA votes work out), swinging about 2% of the chamber. IOW, the generic polls are likely to be about spot on. Why? 1/”“@Vermeullarmine Favorable in 2020, very favorable in 2022. But they are likely to only have one good cycle, because either Trump wins in 2020, or 2022 is a midterm with a Dem POTUS. If GOP gets up to 54, pretty good job of holding through 2024.”“@rem110892 My pt is better to learn the lesson now than later in life when the consequences really are more severe (obvs not the death penalty lol). For this, a clear statement from the league and a "two strikes and you're out for the season" rule would suffice for me, others want more.”“Basic take on the Senate: There are 5 true tossups, with a handful of states on the periphery. Most of the R states have broken away in the last couple of weeks. So, for example, Budd v. Beasley might have been an upset pick, but it is going the wrong way. 1/”Oct 22, 2022 · “I think these analyses provide useful context on where this election stands. The biggest limitation on these analyses isn't that the GOP holds a large number of seats to begin. It is that they describe linear relationships between seat gain which probably don't hold this cycle.” Log in. Sign up“Most people on this site sort into the relatively extreme positions of the two major parties: Almost no restrictions and government-funded, or made illegal. But when analyzing the impact of this opinion, just remember that most voters don't sort neatly into either camp. 2/”“McAuliffe starting to get some more results above the line. Also, moving the threshold up to 85% reporting. City of Richmond hasn't started to come in yet, and Fairfax is still largely outstanding. This is still very interesting.”“@_Chris_Golding_ From what I understand this happened at the end of the fourth quarter, and it took a while to figure out exactly what was going on. All coaches (who are just parents) were horrified, but this is something there needs to be clear guidance on at a …“@mattyglesias The cynical answer is that progressivism puts them in charge. The remainder are by and large libertarians, which can be deconstructed just as easily.”Nov 8, 2018 · In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users “My take: You can make a case for Phantom Menace largely because, as Machete Order proves, you can pretty much watch the entire series without it and not miss anything. But it isn't a horrible movie, though I'm the weirdo who sort of liked the Palpatine political machinations.”“If you don't want to know about the horse race, it's a big internet! Lots of people write about policy. In fact, there are more of them than there are of us, in part because there's no real mystery about the types of policy the GOP will at least nominally pursue. 3/”“Which was a huge miscalculation on his part (I remember some offical basically saying "no Republican president would be crazy enough to undo this." Oops.) Anyway ...In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersNov 10, 2022 · “One of the quiet stories under the hood is that Republicans are looking like they'll win the popular vote. Probably a popular vote swing of 5% (depending on how CA votes work out), swinging about 2% of the chamber. IOW, the generic polls are likely to be about spot on. Why? 1/” “@BenjySarlin @_Jon_Green @EsotericCD Don't want to belabor the point, but I do keep coming back to: This looks waaaaaay different from exurban OH than NYC. Out here we aren't using our excess hospital capacity, we're testing entire prison populations, our statewide death total is about 3% of NYC daily, etc. 1/”“.@FiveThirtyEight nowcast up to 32.2% Trump. So we're at Russian Roulette with bullets in two cylinders.”Jun 23, 2022 · “The truth is, I think the Biden will have a better chance at re-election than the environment (whatever it is in 2024) will suggest, because Trump will make the election about him rather the environment. Should Trump lose the primary, he'll go nuclear on the GOP nominee.” On April 25, 2022, Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, struck a tentative deal, purchasing Twitter for $44 billion. While he isn’t the first billionaire to step into a media-adjacent space, the move leaves users and members of the general p...“One of the quiet stories under the hood is that Republicans are looking like they'll win the popular vote. Probably a popular vote swing of 5% (depending on how CA votes work out), swinging about 2% of the chamber. IOW, the generic polls are likely to be about spot on. Why? 1/”Sean Hannity, the popular conservative political commentator and author, has never been divorced. There were allegations spreading concerning his divorce, however, these allegations turned out to be merely rumors. He has been married to his...“@Vermeullarmine Favorable in 2020, very favorable in 2022. But they are likely to only have one good cycle, because either Trump wins in 2020, or 2022 is a midterm with a Dem POTUS. If GOP gets up to 54, pretty good job of holding through 2024.”“Anyway, this might be a one-off thing. I hope it's a one off thing, and not another example of liberalism, having become ascendant in American politics, abandoning some of the principles that enabled it to begin its ascent out of fear that something else might replace it. 6/”“Think of it this way: We're in a river channel right now with levies on either side, and the river is rising. As long as we stay in the channel seat losses will be surprisingly muted. But if the river rises much higher, all hell breaks loose …Log in. Sign up“I think these analyses provide useful context on where this election stands. The biggest limitation on these analyses isn't that the GOP holds a large number of seats to begin. It is that they describe linear relationships between seat gain which probably don't hold this cycle.”In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“I've been mulling over some of the defenses of Australia's anti-COVID regime from liberal friends, and the ACLU's defense of vaccine mandates. I can't decide if this is a one-off, or some greater shift in American liberalism. 1/”Nov 10, 2022 · “One of the quiet stories under the hood is that Republicans are looking like they'll win the popular vote. Probably a popular vote swing of 5% (depending on how CA votes work out), swinging about 2% of the chamber. IOW, the generic polls are likely to be about spot on. Why? 1/” . Recovering Att'y. Married to @emytrende , dad to 3. You shall love your crooked neighbor, with your crooked heart. Sean T at RCP is a free elf 2020/03/19/coronavirus-effect-economy-life-society-analysis-covid-135579 Replying to @apearlma@SeanTrende. My understanding has been that the public health officials want people to mask because they're worried about this sort of transmission. My basic sense is that this is headed toward vaccinated people not needing to mask. But we need to know definitively about whether they can.“McAuliffe starting to get some more results above the line. Also, moving the threshold up to 85% reporting. City of Richmond hasn't started to come in yet, and Fairfax is still largely outstanding. This is still very interesting.”"There are obviously answers to all of this -- if there weren't I would not have led with him losing four of five times or so. The point is, though, that he's not THAT far off where he needs to be to be back in this. 9/9"“I've gotten a few questions about the "split decision" narrative, and whether it should change if Ds pull out wins in FL-Sen and AZ-Sen (good chance in both!). This gets to one of my biggest pet peeves about elections analysis and sports analysis. 1/”Nov 8, 2022 · “Alright, Florida (mostly), Georgia, IN-01, Western KY, SC, VT and VA are on deck. Then at 8, all hell breaks loose.” “Could just be a bump in the road, but feels like things could get real, real quick. Or maybe it's just general PTSD from COVID-related stuff.”“Basic take on the Senate: There are 5 true tossups, with a handful of states on the periphery. Most of the R states have broken away in the last couple of weeks. So, for example, Budd v. Beasley might have been an upset pick, but it is going the wrong way. 1/”Sean T at RCP Verified account @SeanTrende. Sr. Elections Analyst, RCP. @osupolisci. @aei. Recovering Att'y. Married to @emytrende, dad to 3. You shall love your crooked neighbor, with your crooked heart.08 Sep 2022 18:37:23Replying to @apearlma@SeanTrende. My understanding has been that the public health officials want people to mask because they're worried about this sort of transmission. My basic sense is that this is headed toward vaccinated people not needing to mask. But we need to know definitively about whether they can.Twitter is one of the most popular social media platforms out there — and even though it’s relaxed the 140-character limit a little bit, there’s still not a ton of room to get your point across, so effective marketing is crucial.“And there's a debate about this. As I said, I sort of defend a 0.05 cutoff because standards are good, and it keeps people from offering up p-values of .33 or whatever and labeling that "knowledge" when you'd see …In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @ Protected Tweets @Log in. Sign upSean Hannity, the popular conservative political commentator and author, has never been divorced. There were allegations spreading concerning his divorce, however, these allegations turned out to be merely rumors. He has been married to his...May 21, 2021 · In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users Sean T at RCP. SeanTrende. ... My hot takes on contemporary Twitter discussions:(1) I think Trump is likely to lose. Maybe 1-in-5 chance he wins(?)(2) I don't think the 1988 example is terribly apposite; that was Read more. So my Poli Sci 1100 class from Fall '19 will remember -- or should! -- me saying that I thought the arg. in the Title VII ...Jun 29, 2022 · “And we're probably just interested in that statement for the actual fact that Trump tried to commandeer the Secret Service vehicle. Now there are about a billion exceptions to the hearsay rule. 6/” In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“I've done these before and they are a handy way to see what the votes mean. Basically, once counties clear a certain number of votes in, this take them and compares them to 2017 results, with 4.5% taken off the 2017 results (since Northam won by 9). 1/”Sean T at RCP Verified account @SeanTrende. Sr. Elections Analyst, RCP. @osupolisci. @aei. Recovering Att'y. Married to @emytrende, dad to 3. You shall love your crooked neighbor, with your crooked heart.In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersSean Trende is the Senior Elections Analyst for RealClearPolitics. He is the author of "The Lost Majority: Why the Future of Government Is Up for Grabs and Who Will Take It," and co-authored the ...Sean T at RCP is a free elf. @SeanTrende. It described it as being 100% in, but in fact, those precincts are partially reporting. There are eight counties still at least …“OTOH, we could also easily see something like this,without getting too aggressive (234D-201R).”“I think these analyses provide useful context on where this election stands. The biggest limitation on these analyses isn't that the GOP holds a large number of seats to begin. It is that they describe linear relationships between seat gain which probably don't hold this cycle.”Just astonishing. https://t.co/O0qszz9IqG" / Twitter. Sean T at RCP is a free elf. @SeanTrende. This is sort of how I felt seeing some of the shifts in Appalachia in 2010, or blue collar areas in 2016.It's pretty amazing that we have a grand total of 3 decent, non interest-group sponsored polls of Fetterman-Oz. 08 Aug 2022 Marc Thiessen: Florida, I think he went from 35% to 50% Hispanic support. We just spent four years talking about how Donald Trump hates Hispanics. Well, ...Aug 31, 2020 · Sean T at RCP on Twitter: "Oh. My. God.… " Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende Follow @SeanTrende Oh. My. God. 7:29 AM - 31 Aug 2020 1,201 Retweets 10,113 Likes 848 replies 1,201 retweets 10,113 likes Teddy Fusaro @teddyfuse 31 Aug 2020 Replying to @SeanTrende this can't be real! 1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes 1 8 Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende 31 Aug 2020 “Aside from the expense, this is a significant risk to human life in a disproportionately elderly body that already has some known cases. If he does this, the House should expel him (and anyone else who goes along with him).”Nov 2, 2021 · “McAuliffe starting to get some more results above the line. Also, moving the threshold up to 85% reporting. City of Richmond hasn't started to come in yet, and Fairfax is still largely outstanding. This is still very interesting.” “OTOH, we could also easily see something like this,without getting too aggressive (234D-201R).”Log in. Sign upTwitter is a popular social network in the U.S, with an audience reach of 77.75 million users, and a global advertising audience of 187 million. The first step to advertising on Twitter is creating a Twitter ads account. Go to Twitter.com a...Sean Trende is the Senior Elections Analyst for RealClearPolitics. He is the author of "The Lost Majority: Why the Future of Government Is Up for Grabs and Who Will Take It," and co-authored the ...“Basic take on the Senate: There are 5 true tossups, with a handful of states on the periphery. Most of the R states have broken away in the last couple of weeks. So, for example, Budd v. Beasley might have been an upset pick, but it is going the wrong way. 1/”Advertising on Twitter can be a great way to reach a large audience of potential customers. With so many engaged users, Twitter provides businesses with the opportunity to target their desired audiences and share their message in an effecti...“I think a lot of problems with Rhaenys Targaryen not incinerating the Greens co, Nov 8, 2022 · “Basic take on the Senate: There are 5 true tossups, with a handful of sta, “In 2012 and 2016, the mantra was to treat polls as akin to God's spoken wor, In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested user, Since Twitter seems reasonably likely to go away in the next couple of , Articles by Sean Trende on Muck Rack. Find Sean Trende's email address, contact info, “The story that makes the most sense re the leak is actually Chief Justice Robe, Nov 6, 2022 · “This remains the key chart for how big GOP H, “@shundle So if what we're seeing is more about Ds being, “This histogram of Ohio precincts by Democratic share of the t, Aug 31, 2020 · Sean T at RCP on Twitter: "Oh. My. God.… " S, Since Twitter seems reasonably likely to go away in the next couple o, On the fringes, Johnson seems to have weathered the storm in, “So many other low points, like horses on Star Destroye, https://twitter.com/amyewalter/status/15451146251418378, In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Sugges, “Alright, Florida (mostly), Georgia, IN-01, Western KY, SC, VT and V, Sean Trende is senior elections analyst for RealClearPoli.